# Fiscal Mediation of Demographic CA Effect Within Unions

| Union | Step | Dep. Var | Z_1_dev |  | N | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMU | first_stage | fiscal_bal_gdp | 1.507 | (22.307) | 399 | 0.242 |
| EMU | no_fiscal | ca_gdp | -247.421*** | (37.275) | 399 | 0.336 |
| EMU | with_fiscal | ca_gdp | -247.269*** | (37.612) | 399 | 0.328 |
| EMU | with_fiscal_si | ca_gdp | 4.211 | (26.954) | 399 | 0.656 |
| CFA | first_stage | fiscal_bal_gdp | -53.258** | (26.077) | 732 | 0.050 |
| CFA | no_fiscal | ca_gdp | 78.179** | (39.599) | 915 | -0.000 |
| CFA | with_fiscal | ca_gdp | 95.168* | (48.591) | 730 | -0.010 |
| CFA | with_fiscal_si | ca_gdp | 73.402*** | (26.234) | 712 | 0.533 |

*Notes: PanelGLS with country and year FE. Mediation test: if Z_1_dev attenuates when fiscal_bal is added, fiscal channel mediates. Controls: lagged NFA, growth, relative productivity, KAOPEN.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*
